The Descent of Finance
by Niall Ferguson
When today’s great crisis ends, the U.S. financial system will be a shadow of its former self, but America will be stronger than ever. History shows that money and power don’t always go hand in hand.
If the ascent of modern finance began in the 1980s, with “liar’s poker” on Wall Street and the City of London’s Big Bang, it ended on September 15, 2008—the day Lehman Brothers Holdings went bankrupt. Seven years on, 9/15 supplanted 9/11 as the costliest day in Wall Street’s history.
Lehman Brothers’ demise was one of seven events that, in the space of just 19 days, signaled the end of an epoch. The first, on September 7, was the nationalization of the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac). On September 14 Bank of America announced that it would buy Merrill Lynch. On September 16 a money market fund, Reserve Primary, broke the buck—that is, its net asset value dropped below $1 per share—because of losses on the unsecured commercial paper it had bought from Lehman. That same day the Federal Reserve agreed to give AIG $85 billion to avoid a lethal chain reaction if the insurance giant couldn’t meet its obligations on the credit default swaps it had sold to banks. Nationalization in this case took the form of a warrant to the Federal Reserve for 79.9% of the company’s equity. On September 22 the investment bank became an extinct species when Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley converted themselves into bank holding companies. Finally, on September 25, Washington Mutual Bank was seized by the Office of Thrift Supervision and placed into the receivership of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation—marking the biggest bank failure in America’s history.
by Niall Ferguson
When today’s great crisis ends, the U.S. financial system will be a shadow of its former self, but America will be stronger than ever. History shows that money and power don’t always go hand in hand.
If the ascent of modern finance began in the 1980s, with “liar’s poker” on Wall Street and the City of London’s Big Bang, it ended on September 15, 2008—the day Lehman Brothers Holdings went bankrupt. Seven years on, 9/15 supplanted 9/11 as the costliest day in Wall Street’s history.
Lehman Brothers’ demise was one of seven events that, in the space of just 19 days, signaled the end of an epoch. The first, on September 7, was the nationalization of the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac). On September 14 Bank of America announced that it would buy Merrill Lynch. On September 16 a money market fund, Reserve Primary, broke the buck—that is, its net asset value dropped below $1 per share—because of losses on the unsecured commercial paper it had bought from Lehman. That same day the Federal Reserve agreed to give AIG $85 billion to avoid a lethal chain reaction if the insurance giant couldn’t meet its obligations on the credit default swaps it had sold to banks. Nationalization in this case took the form of a warrant to the Federal Reserve for 79.9% of the company’s equity. On September 22 the investment bank became an extinct species when Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley converted themselves into bank holding companies. Finally, on September 25, Washington Mutual Bank was seized by the Office of Thrift Supervision and placed into the receivership of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation—marking the biggest bank failure in America’s history.
Although the crisis began nearly two years ago, September 2008 was the month American finance fell off a cliff. What will be the long-term impact on the U.S. economy and the global financial system?
From Crisis to Breakdown
Imagine the worst-case scenario: The current recession turns out to be another great depression. The one that began in August 1929 lasted 43 months, according to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research. However, the first great depression, which only historians now remember, began with the Panic of 1873 and lingered for 65 months. If the U.S. economy keeps shrinking that long, there won’t be a sustained recovery until after May 2013.
Fast-forward to 2013. The government-owned Citibank of America, formed by the forced merger and nationalization of the United States’ two biggest banks, now dominates retail banking. The number of U.S. banks has fallen by half, from 8,534 in 2007. There are just 3,000 hedge funds all over the world—less than a third of the precrisis total. The regulatory framework that was imposed by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in the previous four years has completely changed the financial landscape. With new restrictions on executive compensation, bank capitalization, and derivatives trading, retail banking has become more like a public utility. Even nonbank entities like hedge funds and insurance companies have to operate under the unsleeping eye of the new Financial Authority for the Regulation of Systemic Institutions (FARSI).
Despite FARSI’s extensive powers, the U.S. government is still grappling with the fiscal legacy of the crisis. The federal debt is now around $20 trillion—$3 trillion higher than the Obama administration forecast in its 2009 budget. The top income tax rate is 45%. The S&P 500 is down to 418, where it was in December 1991—a decline comparable to that between 1929 and 1934. The United States, it appears, is stuck in the middle of its own lost decade, with real GDP having grown by barely 1% per annum since 2010.
We started out calling it the Subprime Crisis. It quickly became the Credit Crunch and then the Global Financial Crisis. By 2013 a new name has stuck: the Breakdown.
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