First Budget of Independent India

SPEECH OF SHRI R.K. SHANMUKHAM CHETTY, MINISTER OF
FINANCE INTRODUCING THE BUDGET FOR THE YEAR 1947-1948
I rise to present the first Budget of a free and independent India. This occasion may well be considered an historic one and I count it a rare privilege that it has fallen to me to be the Finance Minister to present this Budget. While I am conscious of the honour that is implied in this position, I am even more conscious of the responsibilities that face the custodian of the finances of India at this critical juncture. I have no doubt that in the discharge of my responsibilities I may count on the sympathetic and
wholehearted co-operation of every Hon’ble Member in this House.
2. It is not necessary to dwell at any length on the political developments
which have led to the momentous changes that have taken place since the Budget for the current year was presented to the Legislative Assembly last February. The partition of the country has cut across its economic and cultural unity and the growth of centuries of common life to which all the communities have contributed. The long-term effects of the division of the country still remain to be assessed and we are too near the events
to take a dispassionate view. When the ashes of controversy have died down, it will be for the future historian to judge the wisdom of the step and its consequences on the destiny of one fifth of the human race. Whatever might be the immediate political justification of partition, its economic consequences must be fully appreciated if the two Dominions are to safeguard the interests of the ordinary man in both the new States. Regions which have functioned for centuries on a complementary basis have
been suddenly cut asunder. To have had as a single economic unit a subcontinent peopled by a fifth of the human race meant by itself a great advantage for the teeming millions of its population an advantage not fully realised, and perhaps not properly utilized while the unity was a fact. While it may be a comparatively easy matter to make the necessary political adjustments resulting from partition, it would require time, patience, goodwill and mutual understanding to effect the adjustments necessitated
by the economic consequences of partition. Economically India and Pakistan have each points of advantages and disadvantages. In general, it may be said that, while India is much the stronger at present in industrial production and mineral resources,
Pakistan has some advantage in agricultural resources, especially foodstuffs. But the
complementary character of their economies is even deeper than is indicated by this
generalisation. The compelling forces of economic necessity must create a friendly
and cooperative spirit between the two Dominions and I trust that, when the present
passions subside and normal conditions of life return, our people will work together to
secure that, notwithstanding the political division, the economic life of the common
man is not injured. So far as we are concerned, the Indian Union with its population
of nearly 300 millions will be the second largest country in the world next to China.
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Our economy is more balanced than that of most countries and, in spite of the setbacks
resulting from partition, our large natural resources and sound financial position will
enable us to launch a vigorous economic plan for substantially raising the living standard
of our people.
3. The Budget Statement that I am presenting today will cover a period of
71/2 months from the 15th August, 1947 to the 31st March, 1948. I may briefly explain
the circumstances in which it has been necessary to present a fresh Budget for this
period. With the division of the country and the emergence of two independent
Governments in place of the old Central Government, the Budget for the current year
1947-48 passed by the Legislature last March ceased to be operative. Although under
the transitional provisions of the constitution, Government could authorize the
expenditure necessary for the rest of the financial year, it was felt that it will be in
accordance with the public wish that a Budget should be placed before the
representatives of the people at the earliest possible moment. There is nothing
spectacular about my statement and there will be no surprises associated with a Budget.
I shall place before the House our estimate of revenue and expenditure for this period
and I shall try to indicate in broad outlines the pattern of the economic life of the
country and the problems that we will have to face in the immediate future.
PARTITION ARRANGEMENTS
4. Before I proceed to deal with the estimates for the year, the House would
doubtless wish to have a brief account of the broad details of the partition and its
immediate financial and economic results. As soon as the decision to divide the country
was taken, a Partition Council, consisting of the representatives of both the future
Governments, was set up to implement the decision. A number of Expert Committees,
on which both the future Governments were equally represented, were appointed under
the aegis of the Partition Council to work out the administrative and other consequences
of the partition. These Committees, some of which are assisted by a number of
departmental subcommittees, dealt with all aspects of the problems arising out of the
partition such as the transfer of staff and organisations, the division of assets and
liabilities, the arrangements for the coinage and currency In the two Dominions, the
trade and economic relations between them, the continuance of economic controls and
so on. These Committees had to complete their work in a matter of four to six weeks
and the House will appreciate that in the short time available to deal with these issues,
some of which were of the utmost complexity and importance, it was not possible to
reach an agreement on all matters before the 15th August 1947 when the two Dominions
came into existence and took over the Government of their respective territories. A
number of important points were accordingly left over for further consideration by the
two Dominions and, in the absence of an agreement between them, for reference to an
Arbitral Tribunal which has been set up. Among the important issues on which it has
not been possible to reach an agreement, I may mention the allocation of debt between
the two Dominions, the method of discharging the pensionary liability, the valuation
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of the Railways, the division of the assets of the Reserve Bank and the division of the
movable stores held by the Army. Some of these issues are likely to go before the
Arbitral Tribunal and the House will not expect me to say anything further about them
at this stage. It was also found impossible to reconstitute the Armed Forces between
the two Dominions and allocate the military stores, equipment and installations between
them before the 15th August 1947. For the completion of this work, and for clothing,
feeding and paying the Armed Forces till their reconstitution had been completed, a
Joint Defence Council representing the two Dominions with an independent Chairman
and with a Supreme Commander responsible to the Council, has been set up. This
Council was originally expected to complete its work by the 1st of April 1948 but it is
now hoped that this may be mostly achieved by the end of this month.
5. The long range fiscal, financial and economic relations between the two
Dominions still remain to be considered, but for the rest of the current year the
intention is to maintain, within the framework of the agreements arrived at, the
status quo before the partition. For the present both the Dominions will continue the
existing taxes and duties, there will be a free movement of trade between them
without any internal barriers and the import and exchange controls of the two
Dominions will be co-ordinated. It has also been agreed that till the end of September
1948 the two Dominions will remain under a common currency system managed by
the Reserve Bank, although from the 1st April next Pakistan will have its own
overprinted notes and coin. So far as revenue is concerned, each Dominion will
ordinarily retain what it collects but in respect of income tax on assessments for
.1946-47 and earlier years and uncollected demands ion the date of the partition an
arrangement for sharing the receipts arising in both the Dominions has been arrived
at. In the matter of the division of assets and liabilities, it has not been possible, as
I have explained earlier, to reach an agreement on a number of important points
including the allocation of debt and the discharge of the liability for pensions. But
the responsibility for the outstanding liabilities of the old Government could not,
obvious reasons, be left vague and undetermined and the only practicable course
was for one of the Dominions to accept the initial liability to the creditors and settle
with the other the contribution to be made by it. The initial liability for the outstanding
loans, guarantees and financial obligations of the late Central Government at the
time of the partition and for the pensions chargeable to it has been placed by law on
the Indian Dominion subject to an equitable contribution from Pakistan. I am sure
the House will welcome this decision because in the interests of the credit of both
the successor Governments it is obviously undesirable to leave those who had lent
money to the previous Government or had earned pensions under it in any doubt as
to the Government they should approach for their dues.
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
6. There has been a marked deterioration in the economic situation in the
country since March last. The situation has been aggravated by the large scale
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disturbances which burst out suddenly, more especially in the Punjab and the North-
West Frontier Province. Apart from the serious economic consequences arising out of
these disturbances, the human misery that it has caused cannot be measured in terms
of money. Thousands of innocent lives have been lost in the two Dominions and
migration on a scale unprecedented in history has taken place. The total number of
people involved in this mass migration of population has reached colossal figures on
either side giving rise to problems of great magnitude affecting the economy of the
country. The Immediate effect of these tragic developments has been to divert the
attention of the Government almost completely from normal activities. There has been
an almost total breakdown of the economy of the East and West Punjabs. While
Government have done and are doing everything possible to relieve the immediate
distress and suffering of the refugees, the formulation of long-range plans for their
rehabilitation raises formidable issues both in the financial and administrative fields.
These problems have imposed a heavy burden on the Central exchequer, the magnitude
of which it is not possible to assess at present. The budget of the Central Government
for the next few years will be materially affected by this unexpected development in
the country, Our whole programme of post-war development will have to be reviewed
in the light of this context.
7. The food position has continued to cause grave anxiety both to the
Provincial Governments and the Central Government. The country has just weathered
a serious threat of a breakdown of its rationing system. The results of the "Grow More
Food Campaign" have been on the whole disappointing. During the three years 1944-
45, 1945-46 and 1946-47 we had to import from abroad 43.80 lakhs of tons of
foodgrains at a cost of over 127 crores of rupees. Daring the current year from April
to September we have already imported 10.62 lakhs of tons of foodgrains at a cost of
over 42 crores of rupees. Apart from its being a constant source of anxiety, the reliance
on the import of foodgrains from abroad of such magnitude imposes a heavy strain on
the finances of the Government. In recent years our exchange difficulty is almost
entirely due to the import of foodgrains on such a large scale. The meagre exchange
resources available to us are consumed by the purchase of foodstuffs abroad with the
result that we have to impose the most stringent restrictions on the import of many
other essential articles. The various steps necessary for making the country selfsufficient
in foodgrains must now claim the highest priority. The implementation of
this policy must largely depend on the Provincial Governments though the Government
of India has been and will always be prepared to afford all possible help In this
direction. We have sent a mission to Australia for the purchase of the surplus wheat of
that country and we are hoping that we might be in a position to get from Australia a
substantial quantity of wheat during the next year. An expert committee under the
Chairmanship of Sir Purushottamdas Thakurdas has been examining the food position
in the country and the Committee has submitted an interim report which is receiving
the attention of the Government.
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8. The deterioration in the economic situation has been particularly noticed
in respect of prices which have shown an unchecked upward tendency. Between the
5th April and the 9th August this year the Economic Adviser’s index number of wholesale
prices rose by 7 points while the Bombay cost of living index advanced by 14 points.
Taking the Bombay cost of living index number, while it was 243 in August 1945 it
rose to 267 in August 1946 and reached 284 in August 1947. The chief factor which
has contributed to this development is the general decline in agricultural and industrial
production In the country due partly to the wide prevalence of communal disorders
and generally to the increasing Industrial unrest. While the supply position has been
deteriorating, increases in wages and salaries given by private employers and the
Government had the effect of augmenting the purchasing power of the people and
widening the gap between current money income and production of goods. The situation
would not have been so bad if the unbalance between money and goods was confined
to these factors only. The most disturbing factor which affects the situation today is
the unspent balances of Individuals and institutions accumulated during the peak years
of Inflation which are being spent on the deferred wants of individuals, repairs to
industry and on the building of trade inventory. In other words, the money demand for
goods Is colossal compared to their local production. While the inflation in war time
was due to the large increases in currency circulation (which rose from Rs. 172 crores
in 1939 to over Rs. 1200 crores at the end of 1945) without any tangible increase in
the supply of goods the present Inflation Is not due to further increase of currency but
to a steady fall in the supply of goods. Although the total available money, whether
currency or bank deposits, has slightly fallen It has spread out more among a wider
circle of people in the form of wages and salaries and thus the actual purchasing
power in the hands of those who spend it on ordinary goods has greatly increased. But
the supply of goods has meanwhile fallen and has resulted in an upward trend of
prices. To take only a few examples of the marked fall in internal production, it may
be mentioned that as against a production of 4, 600 million yards of mill made cloth
and 1, 500 million yards of handloom cloth in 1945 the production this year is estimated
at 3,900 million yards and 1,200 million yards respectively. The production of steel in
the current year is also expected to show a drop of nearly 400,000 tons compared with
the peak production of 1,200,000 tons during the war. The production of cement has
also grown steadily worse, the estimated production this year showing a drop of 700,
000 tons over the capacity of over 21/2 million tons. In recent months the production
of coal has shown some improvement. but so far as the consuming public is concerned,
this has been more than neutralised by difficulties in transport resulting in large
accumulation of coal at the pit heads. Transport and other difficulties explain the drop
in production to some extent, but this is also partly due to labour unrest and strikes.
9. If the economy of this country is to be placed on a sound footing and
maintained in a healthy condition, it is of the utmost importance to increase internal
production. The chances of increasing the supplies of commodities by imports are not
very bright. Until recently we had a fair chance of sizable imports of consumer goods
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from the British Commonwealth countries from accumulated balances, but with the
blocking of the major part of these and the growing adverse balance resulting from the
large scale importation of foodgrains, the hope of procuring supplies from abroad is
growing weak. We have therefore to fall back on our own resources. Government
have recently announced their scheme for increasing the production of cotton textiles
which, if worked in a spirit of co-operation between industry and labour, will result in
the production of an additional 1,000 million yards over the estimated production of
the current year. It is intended to explore the possibilities of restoring the level of
production in other fields in a similar manner. I am fully conscious of the fact that any
policy of stabilisation must aim not merely at the increase of production of both
consumer and producer goods but also at the pegging of money incomes at an agreed
and accepted level so that the increased volume of trading resulting from the increase
of production may neutralise the inflationary effects of the large volume of uncovered
money income. If this policy is to be carried out successfully, it would require an
appreciation of the situation by labour and its wholehearted co-operation.
REVENUE
10. I shall now proceed to a brief review of the financial position for the rest
of the current year. But I must warn the House that the estimates now presented must
be treated as very tentative as it has not been possible to assess with any measure of
accuracy the effects of the partition on our revenue and expenditure. I hope it will be
possible to present a more accurate picture when the revised estimates are placed
before the House along with the budget for the next year..
11. I have budgeted for a revenue of Rs. 171.15 crores and a revenue
expenditure of Rs. 197.39 crores. The net deficit on revenue account in the period
covered by these estimates will be Rs. 26.24 crores. But the final figure may be higher
because the actual amount likely to be required for meeting the expenditure in
connection with the relief and rehabilitation of refugees is still very uncertain and
some help may also have to be given to the new Provinces of West Bengal and East
Punjab for which, in the absence of any reliable data, no provision has been included.
12. The revenue receipts, as I have said, are estimated at Rs. 171.15 crores.
Customs receipts have been placed at Rs. 50.5 crores and take into account the effect
of the recent restrictions on imports for conserving our foreign exchange resources.
Income tax is expected to yield Rs. 29.5 crores on account of E.P.T. and Rs. 88.5
crores on account of ordinary collections. Although the Niemeyer Award has now
ceased to have effect it is proposed to maintain the share of the Provinces in the
income tax revenue at approximately the same level as now after making an adjustment
in respect of the Provinces and parts of Provinces now included in Pakistan. The
Centre will retain Rs. 3 crores out of the Provincial moiety as provided in the original
budget. On this basis, the divisible pool of income tax is estimated at Rs. 66 crores
and the Provincial share at Rs. 30 crores.
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13. Revenue from the Posts and Telegraphs Department is expected to amount
to Rs. 15.9 crores and the working expenses and interest to 13.9 crores leaving a net
surplus of Rs. 2 crores. The outright contribution of the department to general revenues
will be three-fourths of the realised surplus, the department retaining the balance. The
department will get a rebate of interest on its share of the accumulated profits in the
past which, after allowing for the portion of the department transferred to Pakistan, is
expected to amount to Rs. 71 crores. As regards the contribution from Railways we do
not expect anything in the current year. The House is already aware of the reasons for
this from the Railway Budget.
EXPENDITURE
14. The total expenditure for the year is estimated at Rs. 197.39 crores, of
which Rs. 92.74 crores is on account of the Defence Services, the balance representing
Civil expenditure. Following the customary procedure, I shall first deal with the Defence
Estimates which remain, as in the past, the largest single item of expenditure.
DEFENCE SERVICES
15. The reconstitution of the Armed Forces in India into two Dominion forces
was an inevitable consequence of the partition of the country. This decision came at
a time when the Armed Forces were in the process of rapid demobilisation. While a
substantial measure of demobilisation had already been achieved, the process was
arrested as a consequence of the decision to divide the remaining forces between the
two Dominions on a communal cum optional basis. The strength of the Army at the
time stood roughly at 410,000 troops. After the completion of the reconstitution of the
Army, India will have roughly 260,000 troops. An organisation under a Supreme
Commander, acting under the direction of the Joint Defence Council, was set up and
made responsible for carrying out the reconstitution, and for general administrative
control of the entire Armed Forces until the completion of reconstitution. From the
15th August 1947, however, the operational control of the troops in each Dominion
was transferred to the Dominion Government. It was originally expected that the
reconstitution would be completed by the 31st March 1948. But the Armed Forces
Headquarters of each of the Dominion have been able to take over administrative
responsibilities in a greater measure and earlier than was originally anticipated and
the reconstitution of the Forces has in consequence been accelerated. It is now expected
that this will be completed in the more important fields by the end of this month when
the Supreme Commander’s organisation will be disbanded.
16. The future size and composition of the Armed Forces have been engaging
the attention of Government, as it is obvious that they must be related to the altered
strategic needs of the country as well as to its reduced financial resources. Under the
pre-partition demobilisation plan the Army was to be reduced to about 230,000 men
for undivided India by the 1st April, 1949 against which we shall have about 260,000
men for our share alone after the reconstitution of the Armed Forces. Due to the
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widespread communal disturbances in the Punjab and the sporadic outbursts of disorder
in other parts of the country, there has been an unprecedented call on the Armed
Forces in aid of the civil power. Government have accordingly come to the conclusion
that the existing Forces should be retained until the 31st March 1948 but the position
will be reviewed next month. The financial effect of this is that in spite of a reduction
of revenue resources the expenditure on Defence Services will be running higher than
it normally should during this year. In the present fluid conditions it is impossible to
forecast the position in 1948-49.
17. India had never an adequate Navy or Air Force and the effect of the
partition has been to reduce them still further, so far as the Dominion of India is
concerned. It is obvious that even without the disturbances there could be no question
of an overall demobilisation in these services. The future development plans of these
services are under consideration.
18. The complete nationalisation of India’s Armed Forces in the shortest time
possible is the accepted policy of Government. Due, however, to various reasons
which are now a matter of history, we have had a shortage of Indian officers for filling
some of the posts in the technical services and the senior appointments, This holds
good to a varying degree for all the three services. It was therefore decided to employ
a number of British officers who volunteered to stay, for one year in the first instance,
from the 15th August 1947. As these officers hold the King’s Commission they were
transferred to a special list of the British Army and the Supreme Commander assumed
control over them. When subsequent developments indicated that the Supreme
Commander’s office may not continue beyond the 31st December 1947 it was decided
to terminate the services of these British officers by the same date, leaving it to the
two Dominions to offer fresh terms to any British officers they may wish to employ.
The British officers have, therefore, been served with three months’ notice, as laid
down in their present terms of service, with effect from the 1st October 1947. The
number of British officers whom it is essential for India to retain and the terms of
service to be offered are now under the active consideration of Government. It may,
however, be stated that the number of British officers to be retained will be relatively
small and it is hoped that all operational Commands, at least in the Army and the Air
Force, will be filled by Indian officers.
19. As has already been announced, an agreement was reached with the United
Kingdom Government that the withdrawal of the British Forces from India should
commence immediately after the transfer of power and completed as early as possible.
The first detachment of British troops actually left India on the 17th August 1947. It
was hoped at one time that the withdrawals would be completed before the end of
1947 but due to shipping difficulties it now appears that this may take up to April
1948. The British troops remaining in the country have, however, no operational
functions. Except two R.A.F. Transport Squadrons the rest are merely awaiting
repatriation.
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20. The rapidly changing conditions this year have made it difficult to frame
a close estimate of Defence expenditure and the position is further complicated by the
fact that the proportion in which the joint expenditure incurred by the Supreme
Commander’s organisation should he allocated between the two Dominions is yet to
be decided. On the best estimate that can be made at this stage, the net expenditure on
Defence Services during the period 15th August 1947 to 31st March 1948 is estimated
at Rs. 92.74 crores. The following main factors have contributed to an increase in the
expenditure;
(1) The decision to suspend demobilisation and to withdraw troops from
overseas.
(2) The implementation of the Post-war Pay Committee’s recommendations
In respect of Defence Services personnel. No provision for this was
included in the original estimates.
(3) The movement of troops and stores in connection with the reconstitution
of the Armed Forces.
(4) The calling out of troops in aid of the civil power during the disturbances
in the Punjab and elsewhere.
The withdrawal of British troops from India earlier than was anticipated originally
has resulted in a saving but this has been to some extent counterbalanced by expenditure
in moving them to the United Kingdom and other destinations.
CIVIL ESTIMATES
21. Details of the estimates under individual heads are given in the Explanatory
Memorandum circulated with the Budget papers and I propose to draw the attention
of Hon’ble Members to only the more important items included In them. As I have
explained elsewhere, the initial liability in respect of the outstanding debt of the late
Central Government and the pensions chargeable to it has been placed on the Indian
Dominion subject to the levy of an equitable contribution from Pakistan. The
contribution still remains to be settled and, for the present, no credit has been taken in
these estimates for any recovery from Pakistan. The estimates also include Rs. 2221
crores on account of subsidies on imported foodgrains and a lump sum provision of
Rs. 22 crores for expenditure on the evacuation, relief and rehabilitation of refugees
from Western Pakistan. I have briefly referred elsewhere to the problems raised by the
widespread communal disturbances In the Punjab and the North West Frontier Province
and the mass migration of refugees between the two Dominions. There are two aspects
to this problem viz., the short term one of giving immediate relief to the refugees
pouring into this country from Pakistan, practically destitute, and the long term one of
resettling them in India. All the resources at the disposal of the Government of India
have been mobilised in arranging the evacuation and relief of these refugees and the
railways and the Armed Forces have been utilised to the maximum extent possible on
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this work. It Is not possible to estimate the expenditure likely to fall on Central revenues
on account of these developments and I have provisionally included a sum of Rs. 22
crores on this account In the Revenue Budget. In addition, a sum of Rs. 5 crores is
being Included in the ways and means budget for advances to the East Punjab
Government. But I must mention that this does not give any idea of the magnitude of
the burden that may be placed on Central revenues by these developments. Indeed, the
basis on which the expenditure on relief and rehabilitation should be shared between
the Centre and the East Punjab, the province most vitally affected, still remains to be
decided and may take some time to decide. Whatever the final arrangement in this
behalf may be, I have no doubt that it is the desire of all sections of the House that
financial considerations should not stand in the way of affording relief to these
unfortunate people and in alleviating their sufferings in one of the most poignant
human tragedies that could take place outside a war.
22. Before I leave this subject I should like to give a brief analysis of the total
provision included for civil expenditure, so that a balanced view of the position may
be obtained. Of the total provision of Rs. 1041/2 crores, Rs. 441/2 crores are accounted
for by the expenditure on refugees and the subsidising of imported foodgrains, leaving
Rs. 60 crores for normal expenditure. This includes Rs. 5 crores for tax collection,
obligatory expenditure of Rs. 221 crores on payment of interest and pensions and
provision for debt redemption, Rs. 2 crores on planning and resettlement and Rs. 12
crores for expenditure on nation building activities such as education, medical, public
health, the running of scientific institutions and scientific surveys, aviation, broadcasting
etc. in which the Centre largely supplements the work of the Provincial Governments
by providing valuable assistance by way of specialised services and research, leaving
a balance of Rs. 181/2 crores for the ordinary expenditure on administration, civil
works etc.. This expenditure only constitutes 18 per cent of the total civil expenditure
included in the budget. In addition to the expenditure of Rs. 12 crores on nation
building activities mentioned above, provision has been made in the Capital Budget
for a grant of Rs. 20.39 crores to Provincial Governments for development and Rs. 15
crores for loans.
WAYS AND MEANS
23. I shall now turn to give a brief account of the ways and means position.
The budget for the current year provided for a borrowing of Rs. 150 crores but this
target will not be reached. Owing to the communal disturbances In the country and the
uncertainties of the political situation, the securities market was very unsettled in the
opening months of the year and no loan was actually floated before the 15th August
1947. After the doubts about the political future had been cleared by the decision to
partition the country, there was some improvement in the position and although the
market has been fairly steady in recent weeks, there is not as yet any large sustained
demand for investment. Government issued early this month a fifteen year loan for
Rs. 40 crores carrying interest at two and three quarter per cent with facilities for
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holders of the 31 per cent. Loan 1947-50, falling due for discharge on the 15th of that
month to convert their holdings. The loan was issued at the beginning of the busy
season and was not expected to be oversubscribed. But the public still seem to be
hesitant in taking up Government loans and if their holding off is due to any lingering
doubts about the responsibility for the repayment of the outstanding debt, I hope they
will be reassured by what I have stated elsewhere that the Indian Dominion remains
responsible to the bondholder. The need for money is now as urgent as ever if
Government are to finance their own development plans and assist the Provincial
Governments to implement their plans for development. There is also the short-term
aspect to this problem, viz. the urgent necessity to counter the inflationary forces
which are still present by withdrawing from the public as much surplus purchasing
power as possible through Government loans.
24. Hon’ble Members must have noticed that in recent months there has been
some criticism in certain quarters of the cheap money policy of the Government. At
the last Annual General Meeting of the shareholders of the Reserve Bank the Governor
of the Bank made some observations on this question. Under the influence of that
eminent economist the late Lord Keynes, cheap money has been the cardinal feature
of the monetary policy In many countries. It is no wonder that the Government of
India fell in line with this trend in monetary policy. The House will realise that there
is no absolute criterion by which to judge the propriety of rates at which Government
borrow in the market. In the long run it is mainly a question of keeping a balance
between the demands of Government on the market and the demands of Industry so
that the available funds in the country are used to the best advantage. In the United
Kingdom where the pursuit of this policy culminated in the issue of a 21 per cent
irredeemable loan last year, attempts are being made to consolidate the progress made
so far and not to proceed further in the same direction. I realise that if there is the need
for such a cautious policy in a country where the economy is mature and the money
and capital markets are highly developed, it is all the more necessary in the case of an
economically backward country like India. Our efforts will now be directed towards
consolidating and stabilising the position so far gained. There is no intention on the
part of the Government to reverse the policy and thereby jeopardize the interests of
those who have trusted the Government with their money. Our borrowing programme
will be such as will enable us to obtain the funds required by Government as cheaply
as possible without in any way affecting the flow of investment into industry. It is also
my intention to reorganise the small savings movement which was considerably
expanded during the war years, so that it might be retained as a peacetime organisation
with the primary purpose of encouraging savings among the middle classes. In cooperation
with the Provincial Governments, steps will be taken to place the movement
on a permanent footing. I take this opportunity of appealing to the chosen representatives
of the people in this House to co-operate with Government fully in their borrowing
programme. If the standard of living of our people is to be substantially raised by
undertaking large schemes of development, both the rich and the middle classes should
come forward to place their savings at the disposal of the Government.
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STERLING BALANCES
25. The House will, I am sure, be interested to get some information on the
subject of the sterling balances, the recent agreement regarding which between ourselves
and His Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom I placed on the table of the
House a few days ago. The peak figure which the sterling balances reached was Rs.
1,733 crores on the 5th April 1946. Thereafter, they have declined very rapidly. At the
end of March 1947 they stood at Rs. 1,612 crores showing a reduction of Rs. 121
crores in twelve months. In the middle of July 1947, from when our new agreement
became effective, they stood at about Rs. 1, 547 crores. We had thus drawn as much
as Rs. 65 crores in a little over six months. These large decreases were due largely to
heavy imports mainly of food grains and of consumer goods, of which the country had
been starved during the period of the war. They also reflected some movement of
capital from India, largely British..
26. This rapid depletion of the sterling balances caused some anxiety to the
Government of India. These balances represent the entire foreign exchange reserves
of this country and it is of the utmost importance that they should not be lightly
frittered away on the import of unessential and luxury articles or on luxury living in
foreign countries for they thereby reduce pro tanto the capacity of this country to
finance capital and developmental expenditure abroad.. The view of the Government
of India is that these reserves should not be used to finance deficits in the balances of
payments on what may be called normal current account. Our aim should be to meet
our normal day-to-day requirements from abroad through the earnings of our current
exports and we should draw upon these accumulated reserves, broadly speaking, only
for the purpose of purchasing capital goods, the import of which is necessary for
developing the agricultural and industrial productivity of the country.
27. With this aim in view, the Government of India decided to follow a more
restrictive import policy from the second half of the calendar year 1947. Broadly
speaking, that policy consists of dividing imports into three categories: free, restricted
and prohibited. Imports of food, capital goods, the raw materials of industry and
certain essential consumer goods are free and no exchange restrictions are placed
upon their import. Consumer goods which are not absolutely essential are licensed on
a quota basis, while others which in the context of the economy of this country must
be regarded as totally unessential and luxury imports have been altogether prohibited.
Together with the restrictions on imports were introduced certain restrictions on
remittances abroad, in particular on the transference of Indian capital. These new
policies are now showing the effects which they were calculated to have and the
reduction in the sterling balances between the middle of July and the beginning of
November 1947 has only been Rs. 21 crores. I should like to point out, however, that
in one substantial respect the import policy now in force differs from that in force
previously, in that in the licences issued for the licensing period June to December
1947 no discrimination has been made between currencies and imports from the dollar
13
area have been allowed on the same basis as imports from the sterling area. This
position, which the House will no doubt welcome, has been brought about by the
terms obtained by us in our interim negotiations on the sterling balances. The main
features of this agreement, which holds good to the 31st December 1947, are that the
Indian sterling balances have been divided into two accounts which may well be
likened to a deposit account and a current account. The current account has been
opened with a credit of £65 millions. All fresh earnings of foreign exchange are
credited to the current account and all balances in the current account are available for
expenditure in any part of the world including the United States of America. The
deposit account is not available for ordinary current transactions but can be drawn
upon only for certain limited purposes such as the repatriation of British capital from
India, the payments of pensions, provident funds and gratuities outside India and
certain other defined categories of payments.
28. Shortly after this agreement had been signed there arose the dollar crisis.
The strain on the dollar reserves of the United Kingdom Government was felt by them
to be so great that they were compelled to break their agreement with various countries
regarding the free convertibility of sterling into dollars. I am glad to be able to report
to the House that our agreement stands unaltered and intact and that as long as we
have any balance to our credit in the current account we shall be able to spend it
without question in any currency area. The United Kingdom Government have,
however, appealed to us for our co-operation in the matter of saving dollars and we
have promised them this co-operation. We are now engaged on a review of our import
policy and are investigating other means to save dollar expenditure and we may have,
I fear, to reintroduce in the next licensing period the discrimination in favour of imports
from the sterling area which we removed only so short a time ago. We trust, however,
that it will be possible so to arrange this discrimination as not to injure the vital needs
of the country’s economy.
EMPIRE DOLLAR POOL
29. The country has always displayed an interest in the arrangement commonly
known as the Empire Dollar Pool. As has been explained before, the arrangement is
that the countries of the sterling area hold all their foreign exchange reserve in sterling,
selling currencies which they do not need to the Bank of England and buying from the
Bank of England currencies of which they are in short supply. As a consequence, there
is always in the custody of the Bank of England a pool of foreign exchange from
which members of the sterling area can buy for sterling the currencies which they
need. A more correct name for this arrangement would be "the Sterling Area Pool of
Foreign Exchange". It has come to be known as the Empire Dollar Pool only because
the most important of the foreign exchanges in the pool is the United States dollar.
30. Figures have been published by, Government from time to time of India’s
earnings of dollars and other hard currencies and of her expenditure of these currencies
and I shall now bring these figures up to date. From September 1939 up to the 31st
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March 1946 we earned Rs. 405 crores worth of United States dollars and spent Rs. 240
crores worth of United States dollars, leaving a surplus of Rs. 165 crores. On the other
hand, in the same period we spent net Rs. 51 crores worth of other hard currencies,
namely those of Canada, Switzerland, Sweden and Portugal so that our net surplus on
hard currency account was Rs. 114 crores. Daring the year 1946-47 we had a deficit
in the balance of payments with the United States of Rs. 15 crores, having earned Rs.
83crores and spent Rs. 98 crores, and a deficit in the balance of payments with other
hard currency countries of Rs. 7 crores. It may therefore be assumed that we contributed
net to the pool between September 1939 and March 1947 Rs. 92 crores worth of hard
currencies, which is the equivalent of 275 million dollars. During the quarter April to
June 1947 we have had a net deficit on hard currency account of Rs. 15 crores. It will
be observed, therefore, that since the financial year 1946-47 we have been consistently
drawing on the pool for our dollar requirements and that we are at the moment also in
heavy deficit with the United States and other hard currency countries. Generally
speaking, however, I would say that, thanks to our policy of foreign exchange restriction,
we hope to end the year in a fairly comfortable financial position externally. What
definite policy we will follow from the next year I am not now in a position to say
because our agreement terminates at the end of this year and we do not yet know what
kind of agreement will replace it. I fear, however, that in view of the dollar crisis
which has threatened not only the United Kingdom but the entire world, we may be in
somewhat greater difficulty in the matter of dollar exchange than we are now. We
hope to enter shortly into further discussions with the United Kingdom Government
on the subject of the sterling balances.
POSTWAR PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT
31. The House will remember that In the budget for the current year provision
of Rs. 100 crores was made for development expenditure, Including a provision of Rs.
45 crores for grants to Provinces. The partition of the country has naturally affected
the scale of this expenditure as the Government of India are no longer concerned with
the expenditure on development in the Provinces and areas now included in Pakistan.
When the partition of the country was decided upon, Provincial Governments were
informed last July that so far as the period upto the 15th August 1947 was concerned,
the Government of India would make advance payments to cover expenditure on
approved schemes upto the maximum of the proportion of the budget grant for this
period. The Provinces were also advised not to enter into any major commitments that
were likely to embarrass either of the successor Governments. It has since been decided
that for the remainder of the year grants will be available to the Provinces now remaining
in the Indian Dominion on the same scale as was originally planned subject to a
proportionate adjustment on account of the division of the Punjab and Bengal and the
transfer of most of the Sylhet district to East Bengal. In the estimates now placed
before the House a provision of Rs. 20.39 crores has been included for grants to
Provinces and a sum of Rs. 15 crores for loans to them.
15
32. In the last budget speech my predecessor drew attention to the fact that
the resources available to the then Central Government for planning and development
were likely to be less than was originally estimated. What he said then for the then
Central Government is equally applicable to the present Government and in the light
of the reduced resources likely to be available it may be necessary to redraw the
development plans and rearrange their priorities. This does not however mean that
there has been any change In the Government’s policy of giving all the assistance in
their power to the Provincial Governments for implementing their development
schemes. It merely emphasises the need for the Provinces mobilising all the resources
for this purpose and I have no doubt that this is recognised by the Provinces themselves.
The House will appreciate that there is a large measure of uncertainty about the future
allocation of resources between the Centre and the Provinces and till this in decided
it will be difficult to make any forecast of Central resources or determine the extent to
which they will be available for development and I hope to take this question of reexamining
the development schemes with the Provincial Governments shortly.
Meanwhile, all the approved schemes of development will be continued and the
necessary funds will be made available for them. Having given this assurance on
behalf of the Central Government,, I would earnestly urge on the Provinces the need
for conserving all their resources and securing the most rigid economy in expenditure.
As I have stated, the whole basis on which post-war development plans were conceived
has now been upset. The substantial revenue surpluses which were anticipated in the
Central budget will now be turned into substantial deficits. In the context of this new
development, the need for utilizing all the available funds in the most effective manner
possible should be appreciated by the Provincial Governments.
33. In the Central field the progress on development schemes is being
maintained and we are going forward with all the sanctioned schemes particularly
those schemes of river development with long range benefits to the country. In this
connection, the House will be interested to know that an agreement has been reached
between the Central Government and the Provincial Governments concerned regarding
the setting up of the Damodar Valley Authority. Another scheme which is likely to be
taken up very shortly is the construction of the Hirakud Dam in Orissa at an estimated
cost of Rs. 48 crores, the benefits from which will include irrigation for over a million
acres, 350, 000 kilowatts of power and a considerable degree of protection from floods
to the coastal districts of Orissa. It is hoped shortly to reach an agreement on this
project with the Orissa Government and the Orissa States after which the actual work
of construction would begin early in 1948. It is also proposed to concentrate on the
construction of the Bhakra Dam in the East Punjab.
THE DEFICIT
34. I have carefully considered if any part of the deficit for this year should be
covered by additional taxation and I have come to the conclusion that it should be
left largely uncovered. If, for any reason, our ordinary expenditure threatens to
16
outrun our revenue there will be a clear case for either reducing the expenditure to
within the available revenue or raising additional revenue to meet the expenditure.
But the circumstances during the period under review have been abnormal and the
deficit is entirely due to these abnormal factors. The expenditure estimates include
Rs. 22 crores for the evacuation and relief of refugees while subsidies for imported
food grains are expected to cost Rs. 221/2 crores. Defence expenditure is also
considerably inflated due to the slowing down of demobilisation following the
partition of the country and the necessity to maintain larger forces than would
normally be necessary. It must also be remembered that no credit has been taken in
the estimates for Pakistan’s share of the expenditure on pensions and interest. If
these factors are allowed for the budgeted deficit of Rs. 26.24 crores will be converted
into a surplus. Notwithstanding this I feel justified in tapping any available source
of income if it could be done without adding to the burden of the ordinary man.
After a careful consideration of all the available sources I have decided to replace
the existing export duty of three per cent on cotton cloth and yarn by a duty of four
annas per square yard on cotton cloth and six annas a pound on cotton yarn. In a full
year this will yield Rs. 8 crores but in the current year the net additional revenue
will amount to only Rs. 165 lakhs leaving a final deficit of Rs. 24.59 crores. A bill
to give effect to this proposal will be introduced at the end of my speech.
GENERAL FINANCIAL POSITION
35. This is the eighth consecutive deficit budget and the House may well ask
itself if our revenue position is sound. I have myself no hesitation in answering that
question with an emphatic ‘yes’. The years covered by these budgets have been
overshadowed by the greatest war in history and no country, whether neutral or
belligerent, has been able to escape its economic effects or its aftermath. The deficits
in the war years were wholly due to the high level of Defence expenditure and were
met as far as possible by raising additional taxation. The return to peace time conditions
has been slower than we anticipated and even this tardy progress has been retarded by
the recent partition of the country and the unhappy developments in the Punjab. I have
just mentioned the large burden thrown on this year’s budget by the unavoidable
expenditure on refugees and the payment of subsidies for foodgrains. In addition, the
expenditure on Defence is much higher than it would be in a normal year. If these
special factors are taken into account it will be seen that we have not been living
beyond our means or heading towards bankruptcy. I do not wish in any way to minimise
our present difficulties or to underrate the effort required to surmount them but I have
no doubt that once we reach fairly normal conditions and are able to reduce our
Defence expenditure to peacetime proportions and curtail our reliance upon import of
foodgrains we should be able to balance the budget. It will be too optimistic to expect
normal conditions for the next year but I feel that with a determined all round effort
we should be able to achieve this result in 1949-50.
36. And what about the general financial position of the country? Here again
while there is no room for complacency there is equally no reason to take a pessimistic
17
view. There is no doubt that economically and strategically the partition of the country
has weakened both the Dominions created by it and It to a truism that an undivided
India would have been In every way a stronger State than either. But the Indian
Dominion with its acceding States would still cover the larger part of the country, with
immense resources in men, material and industrial potential. Our debt position is also
intrinsically sound and for a country of its size, India carries only a relatively small
burden of unproductive debt. Our external debt is negligible and we have considerable
external resources in the accumulated sterling balances. At the beginning of this year
the total public debt and interest bearing obligations of undivided India stood at roughly
Rs. 2,531 crores of which only Rs. 864 crores represented unproductive debt and Rs.
36 crores. external debt, while her external reserves amounted to over Rs. 1,600 crores.
The share of Pakistan in these has not yet been determined but it is unlikely to affect
the broad proportions of this picture.
37. The only disturbing features in the position are the persistence of
inflationary trends and the unsatisfactory food position to both of which I have drawn
attention elsewhere. The only real answer to inflation is to increase our internal
production and thereby close the gap between the available supplies and the purchasing
power in the hands of the community which in present circumstances imports cannot
bridge. Till this position is reached the community must conserve its purchasing power
by lending it to Government. As regards food, I am sure the House will agree that the
country cannot depend indefinitely on imports. For one thing this places us at the
mercy of foreign countries for our vital necessities and for another large scale Imports
of foodgrains seriously affect our foreign exchange position and threaten to consume
the bulk of the available resources which are badly required for the industrialisation
and development of the country. We must concentrate our energies on producing as
much food as possible within the country. I suggest that this to not an impossible task,
for after all the total Imports from abroad, which have never touched more than 21
million tons in any year so far, represent only a fraction of the total foodgrains
amounting to 45 million tons we produce, although they make a large hole in our
available foreign exchange.
38. I should like to make a few observations on the criticism made in certain
quarters that the level of taxation introduced in the last Budget has seriously affected
the incentive for Investment. In their last Annual Report the Central Board of Directors
of the Reserve Bank of India have observed "There seems little doubt now that the
severity of the last Budget is defeating its own purpose and is hindering the formation
of capital for productive purposes. Unless correctives are applied without delay, there
is a danger of the very foundations of society and economic life of the country being
undermined by deepening penury and despair". A pronouncement of this kind coming
from such an authoritative source must receive serious notice. I have no doubt in my
mind that it was not the intention of the Government to so arrange its taxation policy
as to stifle the growth of Industry in the country. On the contrary, it is of the utmost
18
importance that the country should be industrialised rapidly so as to secure increased
production and a widening range of employment for the people. There is no need for
any serious difference of opinion based on more ideological differences. Whatever
might be the ultimate pattern of our economic structure, I hold the belief that for many
years to come there is need and scope for private enterprise in industry. We cannot
afford to lose the benefit of the long years of experience which private enterprise has
gained in the building up of our industrial economy. I believe that the general pattern
of our economy must be a mixed economy in which there is scope both for private
enterprise and for State enterprise. Before I present the annual Budget to this House
next February. I shall make a careful examination of the consequences of our taxation
policy and endeavour to make any adjustments that may be necessary to instil
confidence in private enterprise. In the meantime, I may assure the House that it is not
the policy of the Government to hamper in any way the expansion of business enterprise
or the accumulation of savings likely to flow into investment.
CONCLUSION
39. I would conclude the Speech with an appeal to this House and through the
House to the country at large. For the first time in two centuries we have a Government
of our own answerable to the people for its actions. A to the duty and the privilege of
such a Government to render an account of its stewardship to the representatives of
the people, but it has also the right to ask for the co-operation of the entire community
in the carrying out of the accepted policies. Events of the last few weeks have
unmistakably shown that the political problems arising out of our status have not yet
been fully solved.. While we have secured freedom from foreign yoke, mainly through
the operation of world vents and partly through a unique act of enlightened self
abnegation on behalf of the erstwhile rulers f the country, we have yet to consolidate
into one unified whole the many discordant elements in our national life. This can be
achieved only by the rigorous establishment of the rule of law which is the only
durable foundation on which the fabric of any democratic State can be raised. Respect
for law is essentially a matter of political training and tradition and transition from a
dependent to an independent status always makes it difficult In the initial stages to
secure that unflinching obedience to the rule of law which always acquires a new
meaning in a new political context. If the fabric of the State is not built on durable
foundations, it will be futile to try and fill it with the material and moral contents of
a good life. If India, just risen from bondage, is to realise her destiny as the leader of
Asia and take her place in the front rank of free nations, she would require all the
disciplined effort her sons can put forth in the years immediately ahead. The willing
help and co-operation of all sections of the community is required in maintaining
peace and order, in increasing production and in avoiding internecine quarrels whether
between communities or between capital and labour. I am sure my appeal for this help
and co-operation will not go in vain.
(November 26, 1947)